Big Picture: Can India Seal the Series in Lucknow?
If this tour were scored using the Women’s Ashes points system — four points for a Test win and two for limited-overs victories — South Africa would currently be ahead, 12–8. Viewed through that lens, India may only need one win from the remaining two matches to clinch the T20I series, but a 4–1 scoreline would offer a sense of balance after the 2–0 Test defeat.
In an ideal world, where T20 cricket followed predictable patterns, 4–1 would feel about right. India look close to a finished product, ironing out only minor flaws, while South Africa continue to shuffle combinations in search of clarity across formats.
A victory in Lucknow or Ahmedabad would stretch India’s unbeaten run in T20I series to 14. Yet the reaction to their lone loss in New Chandigarh — the hand-wringing over Shubman Gill’s place and concerns around Suryakumar Yadav’s form — underlines the relentless weight of expectation they carry.
If South Africa can spring a surprise in Lucknow and push the series to a decider, that pressure will intensify dramatically. The question is whether South Africa can harness the relative freedom of lower expectations and turn it into an edge.
In the Spotlight: Arshdeep Singh vs Reeza Hendricks
Only ten batters have opened in 80 or more T20Is, and among them, only Uganda’s Simon Ssesazi has a poorer strike rate than Reeza Hendricks. His returns this series — a three-ball duck followed by 8 off 10 — reflect a broader struggle: just one fifty in 15 innings against India, striking at 118.8.
That puts him squarely in the sights of Arshdeep Singh, who dismissed him cheaply in the previous match. India’s leading T20I wicket-taker and a powerplay specialist, Arshdeep will be keen to strike early once again. If South Africa can neutralise him, as they did in New Chandigarh, they give themselves a genuine chance to compete.
Team News: Bumrah Still Unlikely
India are not expected to regain Jasprit Bumrah for this match, while Axar Patel has been ruled out of the remainder of the series due to illness. As a result, the XI is likely to remain unchanged.
India (probable):
1 Abhishek Sharma
2 Shubman Gill
3 Suryakumar Yadav (capt.)
4 Tilak Varma
5 Jitesh Sharma (wk)
6 Hardik Pandya
7 Shivam Dube
8 Harshit Rana
9 Arshdeep Singh
10 Kuldeep Yadav
11 Varun Chakravarthy
South Africa’s selection remains harder to predict, with changes often coming without clear explanation. Lucknow is unlikely to buck that trend.
South Africa (probable):
1 Quinton de Kock (wk)
2 Reeza Hendricks
3 Aiden Markram (capt.)
4 Dewald Brevis
5 David Miller
6 Donovan Ferreira
7 Marco Jansen
8 Corbin Bosch
9 George Linde / Keshav Maharaj / Anrich Nortje
10 Lungi Ngidi
11 Ottneil Baartman
Pitch and Conditions: Cold, But Not Dharamsala-Cold
Lucknow will still be chilly, though not to the extremes of Dharamsala. Temperatures are expected to hover in the low teens, which makes producing a genuinely spin-friendly surface difficult. In the IPL summer, the venue has proven defendable — sides batting first in night games have a respectable 8–11 record — but winter conditions are likely to bring heavy dew.
